AIT - Top Ten Reasons Tourism will Recover Rapidly from Covid-19

Now is the right time to enter a career in tourism and hospitality, writes Dr Tony Johnston, Head of Department of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure Studies, Athlone Institute of Technology.

Covid-19 has provoked many questions about our society and the economy, but few have been more pressing than the need for a swift recovery in the tourism industry. From a society perspective, the lockdown has inspired many to re-evaluate their leisure time. Many of us cooped up at home will be craving the freedom to travel. There will be equally high numbers eager to visit friends and family around the country and abroad. From an economy perspective, the need for recovery is obvious. Up until 2019, the tourism industry employed around 300,000 people in Ireland and was worth around €9 billion to the economy. Eleven million international tourists visited Ireland last year, spending a combined 61.2 million bed nights.

However, as readers will know, the industry closed its doors, almost overnight, with the lockdown of the hospitality sector due to social distancing requirements, and the widespread international cancellation of flights and closure of borders. Hundreds of thousands were temporarily put out of work and the sector looks very challenged for the remainder of the year. Countries are only now slowly beginning to open, with various phases operating in different countries, regions and cities. There are some small glimmers of hope in certain destinations that some recovery of the 2020 summer season may yet still occur.

It might seem counter-intuitive considering this shock, but there has never been a better time to enter the higher education sector in tourism and hospitality. A student entering a programme now will likely graduate in 2-4 years’ time, depending on the programme level chosen. By then the tourism will likely have well recovered. At this stage, the student, having acquired the range of transferable skills and competences which go with most hospitality, tourism and leisure programmes will be well positioned to lead in the sector.

Here I make the case why: historically, the tourism industry has always suffered from a high level of exposure to shocks, but it is crucial to note, it has always been able to recover. While Covid-19 is unparalleled in geographic range and depth of impact, it pales into insignificance compared to World War 2. In the decade following World War 2, international tourism more than doubled, rising from 25 million arrivals to 69 million arrivals by the 1960s. In 2019 that figure had grown at 1.5 billion international tourists, despite the plethora of environmental shocks (tsunami, volcanoes, earthquakes), terrorist attacks (e.g. Paris, New York, London, Brussels), flight loses (e.g. Ukraine, Malaysia) health epidemics (SARS, Ebola) and the global financial crisis of 2008. Cumulatively these shocks did not hold the industry back, but instead inspired creativity, investment, new travel behaviours and development of new destinations. Below I set out the top ten reasons I believe the tourism industry will rebound quickly.

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Top ten reasons tourism will recover rapidly:

1. Crises stimulate innovation. Events like The Gathering (2011) and the launch of the marvellous Wild Atlantic Way (2104) helped draw Ireland out of recession. Internationally, it’s worth noting that Airbnb was launched during the last recession. In 2019 Airbnb was valued at €31 billion. It is inevitable that the sector will respond with creativity.
2. It’s already happening. Countries which are opening have experienced a promising early boost in the sector. National governments are establishing travel corridors and bubbles and flights are already returning to the skies.
3. History. From environmental shocks to financial crashes, tourism is exposed. It is usually the first sector to suffer during a crisis – but also the first to recover.
4. Tourism professionals are highly educated, hard working and innovative. Hoteliers, transport managers and attraction and destination professionals do not miss opportunities. Many enter the tourism sector in the first place as an outlet for their creativity skills.
5. Tourism volatility and exposure to crises has created a resilient industry. Tourism is an industry used to shocks, but adaptable to change. The industry may look different but a new normal will emerge.
6. The nature of COVID-19 will have stimulated demand. Months of extended lock-down will undoubtedly have created pent-up demand among potential tourists. Travel opportunities will be cherished and a highly desirable commodity as the world reopens.
7. The growing and ageing population. The world’s population is expected to grow by another 2 billion people in the next two decades. More consumers mean more demand. Equally important, is the changing demographic worldwide. An older population across developed nations benefits from increased leisure time and a higher proportion of disposable income. Traditionally this demographic has spent heavily on tourism.
8. The globalised and inter-connected world we live in. From business travel to social connections, for many, travel is no longer solely a choice, but frequently a necessity. We will travel again soon, not only because we want to, but because we have to.
9. National governments depend on tourism revenue. Many countries depend on tourism receipts for a significant portion of their GDP and employment. Business lobbying groups and politicians representing these communities will inevitably lobby extensively for financial supports and aid to drive the recovery.
10. Sector pricing and revenue models. The pricing strategies of the industry will facilitate recovery. Unlikely other sectors, tourism already has an advanced dynamic pricing model, which can be readily adapted to stimulate demand and respond to supply challenges and opportunities. Expect short term pricing opportunities as demand is stimulated.

While nobody has a crystal ball, there is a strong argument to be made that the tourism sector is more likely than not to rebound quickly and aggressively. For students considering a career in tourism, the opportunity is there for first mover advantage. Take that brave first step into a tourism career.

Learn more about AIT's Department of Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure Studies.